Spider-Man’s $18M Forecast Keeps Coyote vs. Acme From No. 1

Still, the same report has Coyote vs. Acme tracking below Spider-Man. That is the blunt part. Goodwill can get a film noticed. It does not automatically give it enough ticket sales to knock off a Marvel sequel sitting on more than $2 billion worldwide.

Photos: PhilipRomano · CC BY-SA 4.0 · source 1, source 2

The Dog Stars Gives Ridley Scott a Rougher Opening Hand

Ridley Scott’s The Dog Stars is the other major newcomer, and it has a harder sell this weekend. ComingSoon describes the film as a 20th Century Studios production starring Jacob Elordi and Josh Brolin in a virus-ravaged world. It also reports a 36% Rotten Tomatoes score.

That is a chilly number for a film trying to pull adults away from a dominant blockbuster and a revived Looney Tunes-adjacent curiosity. Scott’s name still matters, and Elordi and Brolin give the movie a clear face. But the tracking cited by ComingSoon places it under Spider-Man, and the review temperature does not suggest a sudden breakout.

Roadside Attractions’ Sundance acquisition Buddy and IFC’s Idiots with Dave Franco are also entering wide release, according to ComingSoon. Their presence makes the weekend busier, not necessarily more threatening. Spider-Man’s advantage is that it does not need the weekend to be empty anymore. It only needs the newcomers to stay in their lanes.

Photos: ChristopherJClarke · CC BY-SA 4.0 · source 1, source 2

Brand New Day’s Records Changed the Scale

The fifth-weekend forecast lands differently because Brand New Day already did the absurd part. Collider reported that the film passed $1 billion worldwide in five days, reaching $407 million domestic and $645 million international for a $1.052 billion total at that point. Collider also reported that its $360 million domestic opening beat Avengers: Endgame for the biggest opening ever.

Deadline reported another record two days later: Brand New Day became the fastest film to cross $500 million at the domestic box office, doing it in one week and beating the eight days Avengers: Endgame needed in 2019. Deadline said the film was the 23rd movie to pass $500 million in North America. For comparison, Deadline noted that Star Wars: The Force Awakens took 10 days to pass that mark, while Spider-Man: No Way Home took 12 days in 2021.

The IMAX wrinkle makes the early run even stranger. Collider reported that Brand New Day did not have IMAX screens during opening weekend because Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey had IMAX exclusivity from July 17. Deadline later reported that IMAX auditoriums began adding Spider-Man in a co-share with The Odyssey, while Spider-Man kept premium large formats that weekend.

LiveMint also reported that Brand New Day became the biggest opening-day Hollywood film in India, with ₹60.60 crore nett and ₹72.44 crore gross across 17,250 shows. LiveMint said that beat Avengers: Endgame’s ₹54 crore nett and ₹65 crore gross India opening.

The Summer Record Chase Needs More Than Peter Parker

ComingSoon reports that the domestic summer box office needs about $280 million more to pass 2013’s $4.756 billion record. The outlet notes that 2013 ran 123 days, led by Iron Man 3 at $409 million domestic, while this summer runs 130 days from the first Friday in May through Labor Day.

That puts Brand New Day in a funny position. It is huge enough to make the record chase plausible, but not so huge that it can finish the job alone from here. An $18 million fifth weekend would keep the crown, yet the broader summer still needs other movies to contribute real money.

So no, based on the current forecasts, Spider-Man is not finally losing the weekend. Coyote vs. Acme has the sweeter comeback story. The Dog Stars has Ridley Scott and a bleak hook. But the number to beat is still Peter Parker’s, and late August is still being measured against a fifth-weekend Spider-Man drop.